Anti-Clickbait News Summaries for February 18, 2025
The New York Times allows staff to use AI tools for editorial and product tasks (talk about hypocrisy)
Hi! It’s Jack and The Stock Insider team with the best, non-partisan daily newsletter related to politics, the US stock market, and business. 😇
The Podcast:
The Markets:
Futures Highlights
Today’s futures show a mixed bag: while key commodities like Gold and Crude Oil register healthy gains, Natural Gas lags with a notable drop. Equity-index futures are modestly positive except for one laggard.
🟢 Gold: 2928.30 (+27.60 | +0.95%)
🟢 Crude Oil: 71.08 (+0.34 | +0.48%)
🟢 Nasdaq 100: 22278.00 (+81.75 | +0.37%)
🟢 S&P 500: 6152.25 (+20.25 | +0.33%)
🟢 Russell 2000: 2291.90 (+6.50 | +0.28%)
⚪ Dow: 44700.00 (+65.00 | +0.15%)
🔴 Natural Gas: 3.6570 (-0.0680 | -1.83%)
Forex & Bonds Insights
The forex and bond markets reflect modest shifts, with BTC/USD leading gains while shorter-dated treasuries and major currency pairs face declines. The performance here helps indicate a cautious tone amid broader economic signals.
🟢 BTC/USD: 96229.20 (+203.20 | +0.21%)
⚪ USD/JPY: 151.66 (+0.17 | +0.11%)
🔴 GBP/USD: 1.2596 (-0.0028 | -0.22%)
🔴 EUR/USD: 1.0452 (-0.0032 | -0.31%)
🔴 30-Year Treasury: 4.693 (-0.039 | -0.82%)
🔴 10-Year Treasury: 4.472 (-0.053 | -1.17%)
🔴 5-Year Treasury: 4.324 (-0.062 | -1.41%)
Major News Stocks Overview
Among major stocks, APP leads the charge with a striking gain, while a few tech giants and retailers experience slight pulls. Overall, investors are showing robust enthusiasm for several key players, though some names face mild pressure.
🟢 APP: (Change: +8.15%)
🟢 CNH: (Change: +2.81%)
🟢 NVDA: (Change: +2.63%)
🟢 HOOD: (Change: +2.32%)
🟢 AAPL: (Change: +1.27%)
🟢 META: (Change: +1.11%)
🟢 BIDU: (Change: +0.92%)
🟢 MDT: (Change: +0.66%)
⚪ GPC: (Change: +0.18%)
⚪ TSLA: (Change: -0.03%)
🔴 GOOGL: (Change: -0.49%)
🔴 MSFT: (Change: -0.51%)
🔴 BHP: (Change: -0.54%)
🔴 GOOG: (Change: -0.54%)
🔴 VMI: (Change: -0.70%)
🔴 AMZN: (Change: -0.73%)
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Beyond the Paywall:
Events Affecting The Markets Today & Beyond
Most Impactful News Summaries
Today:
Below is a detailed overview of the key events and developments scheduled to occur exactly on Tuesday, February 18, 2025, that could influence the US stock market both directly and indirectly.
1. Earnings Reports
A broad slate of quarterly earnings is expected from companies across multiple sectors. Among those set to report today are:
Technology & Communications:
– Arista Networks and Cadence Design SystemsIndustrials & Materials:
– Celanese, CoStar Group, and Vulcan MaterialsEnergy & Utilities:
– Devon Energy and EntergyConsumer & Industrial Products:
– Genuine Parts and International Flavors & FragrancesHealthcare:
– MedtronicDiversified Sectors:
– Occidental Petroleum
Additional pre-market earnings details (from Nasdaq’s report) include companies such as Medtronic (MDT), Entergy (ETR), Baidu (BIDU), Watsco (WSO), Allegion (ALLE), Fluor Corporation (FLR), Valmont Industries (VMI), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), and Franklin Electric (FELE).
Earnings outcomes will be closely watched as they provide insight into sector performance, corporate health, and broader economic trends.
2. Economic Data Releases
Key economic indicators due for release today include:
NAHB Housing Market Index:
The National Association of Home Builders will release its monthly index (with a consensus reading around 47) at approximately 10:00 AM ET. This indicator reflects builder sentiment and can offer early clues about residential market strength.Empire State Manufacturing Survey:
While not mentioned in every source, several economic calendars indicate that this survey may also be released today early in the session (around 8:30 AM ET), shedding light on manufacturing conditions in New York.
These data points will help gauge current economic conditions and may influence investor sentiment, especially amid ongoing concerns over inflation and construction activity.
3. Federal Reserve Speeches & Policy Guidance
Several key Fed officials are scheduled to speak during the day:
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker – Speaking at 9:30 AM ET
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman – Scheduled for 10:20 AM ET
Fed Official Christopher Waller – Set to address the market at 6:00 PM ET
The remarks from these officials will be scrutinized for hints about future monetary policy moves, particularly as investors remain alert to the possibility of further interest rate adjustments amid mixed economic signals.
4. Diplomatic and Trade Policy Developments
While no new US tariff policies are set to be announced today, background issues continue to weigh on market sentiment:
Trade Tariff Concerns:
President Trump’s ongoing discussion of reciprocal tariffs (with previous rates on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports already in place) remains in the news. Although no fresh policy changes are scheduled for today, investors are watching closely for any signals of policy adjustment that could impact costs and margins.Geopolitical Dialogues:
Ongoing talks between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia regarding the Ukraine conflict may indirectly affect market risk sentiment and energy prices. Such developments can have ripple effects, influencing investor behavior even if they are not market-specific announcements.
These issues underscore the broader geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties that can impact US market dynamics.
5. Market Context & Special Observances
Return After Presidents Day:
Today is the first trading day after the Presidents Day holiday (Monday, February 17, 2025, when markets were closed). The reopening can lead to heightened volatility as investors re-engage with the market.Overall Sentiment:
Early indications show that US stock index futures are higher, suggesting cautious optimism. However, mixed signals from earnings, economic data, and policy discussions mean that market participants remain attentive to both positive and negative drivers.
The post-holiday reopening, combined with these scheduled events, creates a day of potential volatility and opportunity.
Most Impactful News Summaries:
Jack’s note: I recently feel like I’m running an AI newsletter…
About Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and China…
I’m really trying to be non-partisan.
These articles are simply the most influential.
😇
Johnson & Johnson faces key court hearing on $10 billion baby powder settlement
Johnson & Johnson is facing a crucial court hearing on February 20 regarding its $10 billion proposal to settle lawsuits claiming its baby powder caused cancer. This is the company's third attempt to resolve over 62,000 lawsuits through a subsidiary's bankruptcy.
Previous attempts to use bankruptcy for this purpose were rejected by courts. J&J claims it now has broad support for its settlement proposal, which it argues offers a quicker resolution for cancer victims compared to traditional court cases.
The judge will evaluate the validity of the support for the settlement and whether a wealthy company should use bankruptcy to shield itself from lawsuits. Opponents argue that the settlement unfairly binds those who wish to pursue their cases in court.
Trump and critics clash over impact of tariffs on U.S. economy
President Trump and his critics have opposing views on the impact of tariffs. Critics, including some Republicans, argue that tariffs will harm the U.S. economy, increase consumer prices, and create uncertainty for businesses.
In contrast, Trump’s advisers believe concerns about uncertainty are exaggerated. They argue that the threat of tariffs could lead other countries to lower their own trade barriers, benefiting U.S. companies.
European Union officials have indicated they may reduce tariffs on American cars in response to Trump's policies. This development highlights the differing predictions about the effects of tariffs on international trade.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/briefing/a-disagreement-on-tariffs.html
Huawei launches world's first tri-foldable phone in global debut
Huawei has launched the world's first tri-foldable phone, the Mate XT, in Kuala Lumpur. Priced at 3,499 euros ($3,662), it features three mini-panels and a 10.2-inch screen. This launch is seen as a symbolic win for Huawei amid U.S. technology restrictions.
Despite its innovative design, challenges such as high pricing, durability, and limited app access may hinder the phone's success. Huawei has faced significant obstacles since losing access to U.S. components and services in 2019, impacting its global appeal.
Huawei currently holds a 23% share of the global foldable phone market, trailing Samsung's 33%. Analysts note that while Huawei leads in China, its international potential is limited due to ongoing supply chain issues and the absence of Google services.
Source: https://apnews.com/article/china-huawei-trifold-phone-f8a18e6031a881d1febb691dbaeeb156
Researchers identify gene linked to origins of spoken language
Researchers have identified a gene linked to the origins of spoken language. The study suggests that a protein variant, unique to humans, may have enhanced communication, giving our species an advantage over extinct relatives like Neanderthals.
Using CRISPR gene editing, scientists replaced a mouse protein with the human variant, NOVA1. This change altered the vocalizations of the mice, indicating the gene's role in speech development. Unlike the previously studied FOXP2 gene, NOVA1 is exclusive to modern humans.
The findings may help in understanding human evolution and could lead to early detection of speech issues in children. The research highlights the complex interplay of genetics and anatomy in language development.
Source: https://apnews.com/article/speech-genetics-humans-neanderthals-2e1f956c9c794706000162072f0c0c41
China calls for WTO debate on U.S. tariffs and trade tensions
China has requested a debate at the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding "trade turbulence," specifically addressing U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. This meeting will be the first formal discussion of rising trade tensions at the WTO's General Council.
China's ambassador plans to express concerns about unilateral trade measures without naming the U.S. The WTO's Director-General has urged member countries to avoid retaliatory actions to prevent trade wars.
The call for debate reflects China's desire to appear compliant with WTO rules amid ongoing tensions with the U.S. Both countries have long-standing disputes over trade practices and status within the WTO framework.
Experts identify top stocks for the next phase of the AI revolution
The AI revolution, which began with ChatGPT in November 2022, has significantly boosted the Nasdaq Composite and Nvidia's stock. As the focus shifts to the next stage of AI, experts suggest three stocks to watch: CrowdStrike, Alphabet, and Apple.
CrowdStrike is highlighted for its AI-powered cybersecurity tools, which are designed to adapt to evolving threats. With cybercrime costs in the U.S. reaching $12.3 billion in 2023, the demand for advanced security solutions is expected to grow.
The company's revenue has more than doubled in three years, from $1.6 billion to $3.7 billion. Analysts predict CrowdStrike could reach $4.8 billion in revenue by early 2026, positioning it well for future AI growth.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-best-stocks-buy-hold-091500641.html
Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek gains traction in Global South with open-source model
Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek has gained attention for its large language model, launched last month. Unlike Western competitors, DeepSeek offers an open-source approach, making its technology accessible to developing countries, which could enhance China's influence in the Global South.
India plans to host DeepSeek's model on domestic servers, potentially accelerating its own AI development. In Russia, SberBank is using DeepSeek's code to create a new AI model, while African nations see it as a solution to social and economic challenges.
Experts suggest that DeepSeek's success reflects China's growing soft power, as it shares technology more freely than some Western nations. This shift in soft power dynamics may benefit China, especially in regions less concerned about its reputation compared to the West.
Source: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/deepseek-may-china-soft-power-093000584.html
China launches anti-trust probe into Google amid US-China trade tensions
China has initiated an anti-trust investigation into Google, coinciding with the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Despite being blocked in China, Google still offers apps and games through local partnerships.
The probe targets Google's compliance with anti-trust laws, although details remain unclear. This action follows a series of retaliatory measures from China against U.S. trade policies, affecting various American companies.
The global tech supply chain is adjusting to these tensions, with companies relocating manufacturing to countries like India and Vietnam. This shift aims to mitigate the impact of tariffs and geopolitical risks associated with U.S.-China relations.
Trump's second term could reshape real estate and tax policies for investors
Donald Trump’s potential second term could lead to significant changes for real estate investors. Key proposals include making the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, restoring 100% bonus depreciation, and reducing regulations on property development.
His agenda aims to simplify permit processes and lower development costs. Proposed tax policies may maintain or reduce capital gains taxes and preserve 1031 Like-Kind Exchanges, benefiting real estate investors.
However, challenges may arise from increased tariffs on imports, which could raise renovation costs. Trump's tax proposals would require bipartisan support to avoid adding pressure to the national debt.
Space launches hit record high with 259 missions in 2024
In 2024, space launches reached a record high with 259 launches, averaging one every 34 hours. This is an increase from one launch every 39 hours in 2023. SpaceX led with 152 launches, deploying nearly 2,000 Starlink satellites.
The United States significantly outperformed China in launches, with a ratio of more than 2-to-1. The total mass sent to orbit increased by 40% to about 4.2 million pounds, driven by a shift to heavier satellites.
New launch capabilities in Europe are expected to boost the number of launches this year. At least 24 new launch vehicles, including Sierra Space's Dream Chaser, are set for their first flights in 2025.
Source: https://www.newser.com/story/364404/there-was-a-rocket-launch-every-34-hours-last-year.html
China's crude oil imports decline for first time in two decades as EV sales surge
China's crude oil imports fell by 1.9% in 2024, marking the first annual decline in two decades, excluding pandemic disruptions. Sales of road fuels peaked in 2023, with predictions of a 25-40% drop over the next decade.
China's economic slowdown and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) are key factors in this decline. EV sales surged, overtaking conventional vehicle sales for the first time in July 2024, indicating a shift in energy consumption patterns.
India's oil demand is now surpassing China's, with growth expected to continue. Analysts predict China's share of emerging market oil demand growth will drop significantly, while India's share is set to double in the coming years.
Source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Has-Chinas-Oil-Demand-Peaked.html
Tech sector poised to benefit from Trump's second term while green energy faces challenges
President Trump began his second term with executive actions that may impact various sectors. Tech companies, including Meta and Amazon, are positioned to benefit from deregulation and a new $500 billion AI project, potentially enhancing U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence.
Conversely, green energy sectors may face challenges as investors shift focus to fossil fuels. Trump's rollback of green energy credits could reduce incentives for climate-friendly purchases, affecting both large companies and small businesses in the industry.
Insurance companies may experience uncertainty due to potential changes in healthcare policy and the impact of climate change on home insurance. This could complicate the housing market, especially in states prone to natural disasters.
Global electricity demand to rise 4% annually through 2027, IEA reports
Global electricity demand is projected to grow by 4% annually through 2027, according to the International Energy Agency. Emerging economies will contribute 85% of this growth, while data centers and electric vehicles will increase demand in wealthier nations.
Previously, electricity consumption in some rich countries had been flat or declining for 15 years. However, starting in 2024, the IEA expects a rise in power demand in advanced economies, particularly in the U.S.
To meet this rising demand, countries are focusing on renewable and nuclear energy sources. The IEA anticipates that CO2 emissions from electricity generation will stabilize over the next three years.
Source: https://www.marketplace.org/2025/02/17/electricity-demand-energy-renewable-global-iea-consumption/
China accelerates nuclear energy expansion and aims for global leadership
China is rapidly advancing in nuclear energy, adding 34 gigawatts of capacity in the last decade. This growth positions China to potentially become the world's largest nuclear energy producer, surpassing the United States and France within ten years.
While the U.S. nuclear market has slowed, China is innovating with new technologies, including small modular reactors. Chinese state-owned enterprises benefit from low-interest loans, allowing them to build reactors faster and cheaper than their Western counterparts.
China is also expanding its influence in global nuclear markets, financing projects in emerging economies across Asia and Africa. This strategy may enable China to overtake Russia in global nuclear supply chains.
US braces for extreme cold as polar vortex brings Arctic air this week
The polar vortex is a large weather pattern in the Arctic that usually keeps cold air contained. This week, the U.S. is experiencing its 10th polar vortex event of the season, bringing extreme cold to the Northern and Central Plains.
Temperatures are expected to drop significantly, with wind chills reaching as low as minus 60 Fahrenheit in North Dakota. The National Weather Service warns of frostbite and potential water pipe damage due to the freezing conditions.
While the U.S. faces this cold snap, global temperatures continue to rise. January set a new heat record, marking the 18th month in 19 that exceeded the warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The New York Times allows staff to use AI tools for editorial and product tasks
The New York Times has approved the use of AI tools for its product and editorial teams. Staff can now use these tools for tasks like writing social media posts, SEO headlines, and coding, according to an internal email.
[Jack’s note: Yes, the ones suing everyone for training on their content.]
The publication introduced a new AI summary tool called Echo and provided guidelines for using AI. Staff can use AI for editing suggestions, brainstorming, and research, but cannot use it to draft articles or handle confidential information.
The Times plans to allow specific AI programs, including GitHub Copilot and Google’s Vertex AI. This decision comes amid an ongoing lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft over copyright issues related to AI training.
US trade deficit with EU reaches all-time high as tariffs are considered
The U.S. trade deficit with the European Union reached a record high in 2024, totaling nearly €200 billion. This marks a significant increase from €156.6 billion in 2023 and surpasses the previous record of €166.9 billion in 2021.
In 2024, the EU imported €333.3 billion worth of goods from the U.S., while the U.S. purchased €531.6 billion from the EU. This growing imbalance has prompted former President Donald Trump to consider imposing tariffs on EU goods.
Trump has criticized the EU for not purchasing enough American products and has indicated that tariffs could be implemented soon. He argues that high EU taxes on U.S. imports contribute to the trade deficit.
Source: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-trade-deficit-eu-hits-180118055.html
New AI models emerge in 2024 and 2025 with diverse functions and pricing
AI models are rapidly evolving, with new releases from major companies like OpenAI and Google. A recent overview highlights advanced models launched in 2024 and 2025, detailing their functions and usage.
OpenAI's o3-mini focuses on STEM tasks and is available for free, while Deep Research requires a $200 monthly subscription. Google’s Gemini 2.0 Pro excels in coding and has a long context window, needing a $19.99 subscription.
Other notable models include Mistral's Le Chat, which offers a fast personal assistant, and Meta's Llama 3.3, an open-source model for math and general knowledge. Many models incorporate subscription fees or have limitations for free users.
Source: https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/17/these-are-the-hottest-ai-models-what-they-do-and-how-to-use-them/
Harvard study shows AI is transforming the U.S. labor market with key job trends
A new study by Harvard economists shows that artificial intelligence is beginning to change the U.S. labor market. While there was stability from 1990 to 2017, recent data indicates a shift in job trends since 2019.
The research highlights four key trends: a rise in high-paid jobs, an increase in STEM positions, a decline in low-paid service work, and a significant drop in retail sales jobs. These changes suggest that AI is influencing job distribution and investment in technology.
The study also notes that while some jobs may not return, the demand for skilled workers is growing. Companies may expect more from employees as AI becomes more integrated into the workplace.
Source: https://phys.org/news/2025-02-ai-labor-trends-major.html