Anti-Clickbait News Summaries for February 13, 2025
Ex-Google CEO warns of AI misuse by rogue states and terrorist groups
Hi! It’s Jack and The Stock Insider team with the best, non-partisan daily newsletter in the world related to politics, the US stock market, and business. 😇
The Podcast:
The Markets:
Futures Highlights
Today in the futures market, energy commodities and major indices showed mixed performance. While Natural Gas, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 rallied, Crude Oil experienced a modest decline.
🔴 Crude Oil: 70.54 (–0.83 | –1.16%)
🟢 Natural Gas: 3.7090 (+0.1440 | +4.04%)
🟢 Gold: 2940.20 (+11.50 | +0.39%)
🟢 Dow: 44550.00 (+88.00 | +0.20%)
⚪ S&P 500: 6083.75 (+11.00 | +0.18%)
🟢 Nasdaq 100: 21884.50 (+79.75 | +0.37%)
🟢 Russell 2000: 2280.80 (+17.70 | +0.78%)
Forex & Bonds Update
The forex and bond markets posted modest moves, with currencies and yields reacting to a mix of minor gains and declines. GBP/USD edged higher, while USD/JPY and key Treasury yields slid, hinting at cautious sentiment among investors.
⚪ EUR/USD: 1.0395 (+0.0013 | +0.13%)
🔴 USD/JPY: 153.55 (–0.86 | –0.56%)
🟢 GBP/USD: 1.2467 (+0.0025 | +0.20%)
🔴 BTC/USD: 95908.90 (–993.80 | –1.03%)
🔴 5-Year Treasury: 4.466 (–0.018 | –0.40%)
🔴 10-Year Treasury: 4.613 (–0.024 | –0.52%)
🔴 30-Year Treasury: 4.818 (–0.017 | –0.35%)
Major Stock Movers
Stock activity was a mixed bag as notable winners surged while established giants posted declines. Below is a sorted list—from the biggest winners to the most significant losers—highlighting today's key market movers.
🟢 BABA: +4.92%
🟢 BIDU: +4.36%
🟢 COIN: +3.00%
🟢 TSLA: +2.44%
🟢 AAPL: +1.83%
🟢 PCG: +1.58%
🟢 DE: +0.48%
🟢 C: +0.20%
⚪ CSCO: +0.16%
🔴 MSFT: –0.58%
🔴 GOOG: –0.88%
🔴 GOOGL: –0.92%
🔴 DHIL: –1.13%
🔴 NVDA: –1.25%
🔴 HMC: –1.29%
🔴 AMZN: –1.65%
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Beyond the Paywall:
Events Affecting The Markets Today & Beyond
Most Impactful News Summaries
Today:
Below is an in‐depth overview of key events and announcements scheduled for Thursday, February 13, 2025, that may influence the US stock market both directly and indirectly. Note that these events are all happening exactly today:
1. Macroeconomic Data Releases
Producer Price Index (PPI):
– The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January PPI data at 8:30 a.m. ET. Analysts expect a monthly increase of around 0.3% and an annual rise near 3.3%. This figure is closely watched as it helps gauge wholesale inflation trends and influences expectations about future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Jobless Claims:
– Initial and continuing weekly jobless claims are scheduled for release (with figures appearing around the morning session). These numbers serve as a key indicator of labor market health and can affect investor sentiment regarding economic recovery.
Additional treasury-related events—such as upcoming bill auctions and a planned $25 billion 30-year bond sale—are also on today’s agenda. These activities can indirectly impact equity valuations by influencing interest rates and overall liquidity in the market.
2. Federal Reserve and Policy Speeches
Fed Chair Testimony:
– Jerome Powell is beginning his second day of testimony before Congress, starting at around 10:00 a.m. ET. His remarks, along with those from other Fed officials (for instance, speeches by Raphael Bostic and John Williams later today), will provide insights into the Fed’s view on inflation and future rate moves. Such commentary is critical given recent data that has pushed market expectations of further rate cuts into question.
3. Corporate Earnings and IPO Announcements
Pre-market Earnings Reports:
– A slate of companies is set to report earnings today before the market opens. These include major names in various sectors (e.g., Deere & Company, Moody’s, Duke Energy, Brookfield Corporation, Zoetis, American Electric Power, Howmet Aerospace, Datadog, CBRE, GE HealthCare, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, and PG&E). Strong or weak performance in these reports could shift investor sentiment across sectors.
SailPoint IPO:
– Cybersecurity firm SailPoint completed its US IPO today, raising $1.38 billion by pricing shares at the top end of its range. With a valuation of approximately $12.6 billion, SailPoint’s return to the public market could set a tone for upcoming listings later this quarter.
4. Policy Announcements and Tariff Developments
New Reciprocal Tariffs:
– President Donald Trump is expected to announce a new set of reciprocal tariffs today. These tariffs target countries that levy duties on US imports. The announcement is poised to stir market volatility as investors weigh the impact on global trade and US corporate earnings.
5. Structural Market Announcements
Exchange Listing Transfer:
– In a significant strategic move, Thomson Reuters announced today that it will transfer its US listing from the NYSE to Nasdaq. Although the actual trading change will occur later (with the NYSE trading ceasing around February 24 and Nasdaq trading starting on February 25), the announcement itself is a noteworthy development reflecting broader shifts in market structure.
NYSE Expansion to Texas:
– In a related development, the NYSE has revealed plans to reincorporate NYSE Chicago as NYSE Texas—an entirely electronic exchange based in Dallas. This move, pending regulatory approval, reflects growing competition in regional market centers and could influence investor perceptions of market accessibility and competitiveness.
6. Additional Context and Market Sentiment
Other scheduled activities—such as various treasury auctions and updated economic indicators (e.g., EIA petroleum status and natural gas inventories)—add further context to today’s market outlook. Combined with the mix of earnings reports, Fed commentary, and policy moves, these events are expected to create a day of heightened volatility and mixed sentiment.
Most Impactful News Summaries:
Jack’s note: I feel like I’m running an AI newsletter…
That might be a sign of something.
Decentralised social media gains traction as users seek alternatives to big tech platforms
Decentralised social media is gaining attention as users seek alternatives to major platforms like X and Meta. The rise began after Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter in 2022, prompting many to explore new options.
The Fediverse, created using the ActivityPub protocol, allows users to connect through various independent servers. This system contrasts with traditional platforms, which centralize user data and content management.
Bluesky, launched in 2024, is another alternative but is considered more centralised compared to the Fediverse. Experts discuss these developments in a recent podcast episode featuring Robert Gehl, a digital governance researcher.
Source: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/decentralised-social-media-offers-alternative-113442629.html
Ex-Google CEO warns of AI misuse by rogue states and terrorist groups
Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, warned that rogue states like North Korea, Iran, and Russia could misuse artificial intelligence to develop harmful weapons. He expressed concerns about the potential for terrorist groups to exploit AI technology for attacks.
Schmidt supported U.S. export controls on advanced AI microchips to limit adversaries' progress. He called for government oversight of tech companies but cautioned against over-regulation, which could hinder innovation.
At the recent AI Action summit in Paris, the U.S. and U.K. did not sign a joint agreement on AI, citing concerns over national safety. Schmidt noted that Europe's restrictive approach could slow AI advancements compared to other regions.
U.S. manufacturing faces steep decline with 70,000 factories lost since 2000
The United States has lost nearly 70,000 factories since 2000, resulting in over 5 million manufacturing job losses. Currently, only 12.8 million Americans work in manufacturing, down from 19.5 million in 1979, despite a larger population.
Manufacturing now accounts for just 10.3% of the U.S. economy, a significant drop from 28% in 1959. The trade deficit with China reached $295 billion in 2024, with China producing four times as many vehicles as the U.S.
Over 36 million Americans live in poverty, and homelessness is at an all-time high. The U.S. economy faces challenges as it imports far more than it exports, leading to a national debt of $36 trillion.
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/12-facts-about-deindustrialization-america-will-blow-your-mind
China's fuel use growth slows as electric vehicle sales rise, IEA reports
China's fuel use growth is slowing, a unique situation for its economic stage, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Fuel consumption may have already plateaued, with a slight decline noted in 2024.
In 2024, China's fuel use fell to 8.1 million barrels per day, just below 2021 levels. The IEA predicts a modest increase in 2025 but suggests that overall fuel consumption may have peaked.
Factors contributing to this trend include a slump in construction, weak consumer spending, and a rise in electric vehicle sales, which now make up half of car sales. These changes have reduced demand growth significantly since 2019.
Source: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-plateauing-fuel-use-is-without-precedent-iea-says
Trump calls for immediate closure of Department of Education
President Trump has stated he wants to close the Department of Education "immediately." This comes as Linda McMahon prepares for her confirmation hearing as education secretary, a role that may soon be obsolete.
The Department of Education manages federal student loans, grants, and civil rights enforcement in schools. Over 40 million borrowers rely on its services, including the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program and Title I funding for low-income schools.
Trump's plan to dismantle the department would require Congressional approval. Some Republicans have proposed transferring its responsibilities to other agencies, but no significant support for this has emerged yet.
Renault considers selling its stake in Nissan as Foxconn shows interest in collaboration
Renault may sell its 36% stake in Nissan, valued at about $3.5 billion. Foxconn, the largest producer of electronic components, has expressed interest but emphasizes a focus on industrial cooperation rather than outright purchase.
Foxconn's president, Young Liu, stated that while they are open to a deal, their priority is to establish a clear business plan with Nissan. This comes as Nissan faces job cuts and salary reductions amid a challenging market.
The potential collaboration arises as both companies navigate increased competition from China and changing tariffs in the U.S. Foxconn reassured that it can adapt its production strategies based on tariff conditions.
Source: https://uk.motor1.com/news/750554/renault-sell-nissan-stake-rumours/
Ray Dalio warns Trump administration to cut U.S. budget deficit or risk economic crisis
Ray Dalio, a prominent hedge fund manager, warned the Trump administration about the urgent need to reduce the U.S. budget deficit from 7.5% to 3% of GDP. He described the situation as serious, likening it to a medical emergency.
As of February 11, the U.S. national debt was approximately $36.22 trillion, with a significant portion held by the public. Dalio emphasized that high debt increases interest payments and economic vulnerability, leading to inflation and future burdens.
Dalio also raised concerns about private credit, describing a potential "debt death spiral." He urged government leaders to take responsible actions to address the debt issue or face severe economic consequences.
U.S. faces growing debt crisis despite efforts to cut fraud and improve efficiency
The U.S. faces a significant debt crisis, with federal debt at about 100% of GDP and annual deficits projected to rise. While the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aims to reduce fraud and improve efficiency, it cannot fully address the underlying issues.
Current proposals, such as raising taxes or cutting discretionary spending, are insufficient. The main drivers of future deficits are entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which require substantial reform to remain sustainable.
DOGE's approach may yield some savings, but its temporary nature and potential legal challenges limit its effectiveness. Long-term solutions require bipartisan cooperation in Congress to address the debt crisis comprehensively.
Source: https://reason.com/2025/02/13/doge-is-good-its-not-enough/
Bank of America forecasts peak in global oil demand as green energy rises
Bank of America reports that global oil demand is nearing its peak, predicting a decline due to slowing economic growth and increased green energy infrastructure. The bank estimates oil demand growth will drop significantly by 2030.
Despite the rise of energy-intensive AI infrastructure, global energy consumption is expected to grow less than 3% annually. The U.S. may see some growth, but renewable energy sources like solar are projected to dominate.
The shift towards green energy is expected to continue, impacting oil consumption worldwide. Even countries like Saudi Arabia are investing in renewable energy, indicating a broader trend away from crude oil reliance.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/global-oil-demand-clings-thread-031433984.html
IoT devices face rising security threats as adoption soars to 40 billion by 2030
The number of Internet of Things (IoT) devices is expected to reach 40 billion by 2030, but security measures are lagging. A report shows these devices face an average of 10 attacks daily, highlighting significant vulnerabilities.
Many IoT devices lack essential security features like encryption and regular updates. This creates risks, especially in critical sectors like healthcare and transportation, where breaches can have serious consequences.
Both manufacturers and users share responsibility for IoT security. Manufacturers often prioritize speed over security, while users frequently neglect basic protections, such as changing default passwords and updating software. Standardized security protocols are needed to address these challenges.
Trump administration explores defense funding to boost deportations in the US
The Trump administration is considering using Department of Defense funding to increase immigrant arrests and deportations. This plan would allow hiring contractors to expand detention facilities and improve transportation for deportations.
Currently, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) faces budget constraints, limiting the number of detained immigrants. The administration aims to address this by exploring Logistics Civil Augmentation Program contracts for more resources.
Legal challenges may arise from this funding approach. The administration plans to justify the use of these contracts by citing the Alien and Sedition Acts and a national emergency declaration at the southern border.
Bank of America warns US tariffs may weaken dollar in long run
Bank of America warns that U.S. tariffs may weaken the dollar in the long run, despite an initial boost. The bank's analysis suggests that retaliation from other nations could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
Currently, the dollar has risen about 7% since late September, driven by strong U.S. economic growth and recent tariff announcements. However, gains were reduced after Canada and Mexico negotiated a delay on tariffs.
Countries like Japan and members of the European Union are seeking exemptions and solutions to avoid escalating trade disputes. Bank of America indicates that increased tariffs could make the U.S. more vulnerable in global trade.
OpenAI updates guidelines to allow AI models to engage with controversial topics
OpenAI has released an updated Model Spec, expanding from 10 to 63 pages. This new version allows AI models to engage with controversial topics more openly, emphasizing user customization, transparency, and intellectual freedom.
The updated guidelines encourage models to provide reasoned analysis on sensitive issues, rather than avoiding them. They also explore allowing certain adult content while maintaining strict bans on harmful material.
OpenAI is seeking public feedback on the new specification, which is now available under a Creative Commons license. This move aims to improve AI behavior and address ongoing debates about AI ethics and safety.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/openai/611375/openai-chatgpt-model-spec-controversial-topics
Meta embraces open-source strategy to boost AI collaboration and innovation
Meta Platforms is expanding its role in artificial intelligence by focusing on open-source projects. This shift aims to enhance collaboration and innovation in the AI field.
Previously, Meta's AI efforts were more proprietary, limiting access to its technologies. The new open-source approach could encourage broader participation from developers and researchers.
This change reflects a growing trend in the tech industry towards open-source solutions, which can accelerate advancements in AI applications and tools.
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4757530-metas-open-source-gambit-could-reshape-the-ai-landscape
U.S. reports $129 billion budget deficit for January driven by spending increases
The U.S. government reported a $129 billion budget deficit for January, a significant increase from a $22 billion deficit in January 2024. This rise is attributed to calendar shifts in benefit payments and higher spending on Social Security and Medicare.
January receipts totaled $513 billion, an 8% increase from the previous year, while outlays reached $642 billion, up 29%. Without calendar shifts, the adjusted deficit would have been $21 billion.
For the first four months of fiscal 2025, the year-to-date deficit hit a record $840 billion, a 58% increase from the same period last year. Year-to-date receipts were $1.596 trillion, and outlays totaled $2.436 trillion, both record highs.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-posts-129-billion-january-190356984.html
Former ICE official says Trump's mass deportation plan could be feasible
A former ICE official stated that President Trump's mass deportation plan "could be possible" if he implements his executive orders. John Sandweg highlighted differences in ICE's focus under Trump, targeting all undocumented individuals, unlike the Obama administration's focus on serious criminals.
Under Trump's administration, ICE has arrested 11,000 undocumented immigrants. The administration's policy change allows ICE to make arrests in sensitive locations like churches, which has led to lawsuits from religious groups challenging this decision.
Sandweg noted that while ICE rarely enters schools or churches, the administration aims to send a message that no place is safe for undocumented migrants. This approach is intended to encourage self-deportation among those living unlawfully in the U.S.
Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-mass-deportation-plan-former-ice-official/story?id=118741344
Inflation rises to 3% in January raising concerns over purchasing power
Inflation rose to 3% in January, up from 2.9% in December, according to new data. This increase has raised concerns among consumers and investors as prices for essential goods continue to rise, impacting purchasing power.
Gold is being highlighted as a potential investment to protect wealth during inflationary periods. Historically, gold has maintained its value when inflation rises, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability amid economic uncertainty.
Current geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. economic policies have increased market uncertainty. Central banks are also adding gold to their reserves, indicating a lack of confidence in traditional currencies and reinforcing gold's role as a safe-haven asset.
Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-just-rose-again-why-you-should-invest-in-gold-right-now/