Anti-Clickbait News Summaries for September 9, 2024 + Upcoming Changes!
Since I’m in Europe, starting from tomorrow, I will be sending these about 30 minutes before the Stock Market opens. I think this way it will be the most useful to traders.
Economists say 'vibecession' is ending as inflation cools
Economists report that the "vibecession" is ending as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates. Consumer sentiment is improving, with the personal consumption expenditures price index rising 2.5% year-over-year in July. The unemployment rate is at 4.2%, and markets predict a 100% chance of rate cuts during the Fed's September meeting. Goldman Sachs has reduced recession probability from 25% to 20%.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/09/the-vibecession-is-ending-economists-say.html
Nations meet in Seoul to discuss military AI guidelines
More than 90 nations, including the U.S. and China, are meeting in Seoul for a two-day summit starting September 9, 2024, to discuss military AI use. Participants aim to establish guidelines for responsible AI deployment, building on commitments made at a 2023 summit in Amsterdam. The urgency has increased as countries like Ukraine adopt AI technologies, while the U.S., Britain, and the EU recently signed an international AI treaty.
U.S.-China relations hinge on November election outcome
Meghan O'Sullivan, director of Harvard's Belfer Center, highlights that the U.S. approach to China could vary significantly depending on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the November election. O'Sullivan, a former assistant to a U.S. president, emphasizes the implications of these differing strategies for U.S.-China relations. The election outcome may shape future diplomatic and economic interactions between the two nations.
EU needs €800 billion more investment to survive
A report led by former ECB chief Mario Draghi warns the EU must increase investment by €800 billion annually to avoid an "existential challenge." The findings, released before the new Commission's confirmation, highlight the need for reforms in industrial policy and productivity. Without this investment, the EU risks scaling back its social model and ambitions, facing competition from the US and China in innovation and emerging industries.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gq1e7k2j8o
mRNA vaccine market to reach $9.6 billion by 2034
The global mRNA vaccine market is projected to reach $9.6 billion by 2034, despite an estimated decline of -4.3% CAGR from 2024. Key drivers include streamlined approval processes, innovations in logistics, and increased public trust. North America leads the market, with private hospitals and clinics playing a significant role in distribution. Ongoing research into mRNA vaccine efficacy and applications beyond infectious diseases is shaping future trends.
New AI model Reflection outperforms GPT-4o on tests
Reflection 70B, developed by HyperWrite, is a new open-source AI model based on Meta's Llama architecture, featuring 70 billion parameters. It employs a unique reflection mechanism to correct its own errors, achieving 99.2% accuracy on the GSM8k benchmark. Early tests show it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o and other models. HyperWrite has raised $5.4 million in funding and plans to release a larger model, Reflection 405B.
Trade viewed as a problem, not economic driver
Ralph Ossa, chief economist at the World Trade Organization, stated that trade is increasingly viewed as a problem rather than an economic driver. This perspective shift reflects growing concerns about trade's impact on local economies and global supply chains. Ossa's comments highlight a significant change in the perception of trade's role in economic development.
Veterinary hematology analyzers market to reach $1.8 billion by 2034
The global veterinary hematology analyzers market is projected to grow from US$ 1 billion in 2023 to US$ 1.8 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 5.9%. These advanced devices automate blood sample analysis, aiding in the diagnosis of various animal diseases. The market is driven by increasing pet ownership, with 340 million pets in Europe as of 2022, and rising awareness of zoonotic diseases.
Samsung and SK Hynix invest billions in DRAM for AI
Samsung and SK Hynix are investing billions to boost DRAM production, driven by soaring demand for AI servers. Their latest High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips, like Samsung's HBM3 Icebolt, utilize stacked DRAM dies for enhanced performance. While this surge primarily targets AI applications, excess HBM production could eventually benefit PC gaming, although current trends favor AI over gaming needs.
Huawei's tri-fold smartphone hits 3 million preorders
Huawei's tri-fold Mate XT smartphone has garnered over 3.18 million preorders since September 7, ahead of Apple's iPhone 16 launch. Apple’s iPhone sales fell 19% in China, marking its worst performance since 2020, while Huawei's market share increased. China's smartphone shipments rose 8.9% in Q2 2024, with local brands like Huawei and Xiaomi leading growth, pushing Apple to sixth place in the market.
Source: https://qz.com/huawei-trifold-phone-preorders-china-apple-iphone-16-1851643088
Market influenced by inflation, earnings, and geopolitical tensions
On September 9, 2024, key market drivers include ongoing economic data releases, corporate earnings reports, and geopolitical developments. Investors are closely monitoring inflation rates, which have shown a slight increase to 3.2%, and unemployment figures, currently at 4.1%. Additionally, tensions in Eastern Europe and trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are influencing market sentiment.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/09/09/wex-wrap-up-for-monday-september-9.html
Consumption weakens China's economic recovery, economist warns
Qian Wang, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Vanguard, highlighted that consumption is the "weak link" in China's economy after recent consumer inflation data was released. The data indicates ongoing challenges in consumer spending, which is critical for economic growth. The discussion comes amid broader concerns about China's economic recovery and its impact on the Asia-Pacific region.
Generative AI triples data center carbon emissions by 2030
A Morgan Stanley report indicates that generative AI is driving data center emissions to potentially reach 2.5 billion tons of greenhouse gases by 2030, tripling previous estimates. Emissions are expected to rise from 200 million tons in 2024 to 600 million tons by 2030, with 60% from operations and 40% from construction. The tech industry currently accounts for 40% of annual U.S. emissions.
Source: https://www.techradar.com/pro/generative-ai-triples-the-carbon-dioxide-emissions-from-data-centers
$400 billion for clean energy projects, only $10 billion distributed
The U.S. has allocated $400 billion for clean energy projects through the Inflation Reduction Act, but only $10 billion has been distributed so far. The Energy Department has approved $6.5 billion in loans to five companies, with over 200 applications totaling $281 billion pending. Recent agreements include $1.45 billion for a solar project in Georgia and $1.2 billion for battery production.
Fixed wing drone market to reach $40.6 billion by 2034
The global fixed wing drone market is projected to grow from US$ 8.3 billion in 2024 to US$ 40.6 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 17.2%. Key drivers include advancements in AI and sensor technology, increasing military applications, and government investments. Notably, the U.S. market is expected to reach US$ 1.38 billion in 2024, while South Korea anticipates a 19% CAGR during the same period.
Green job market expanding due to clean energy initiatives
The U.S. green job market is projected to expand significantly, fueled by the $800 billion allocated through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 for clean energy initiatives over the next decade. Current roles include electric vehicle charger maintenance and renewable energy software development. The demand for public charging stations is expected to rise from 175,000 to 1.2 million by 2030, highlighting the growing opportunities in this sector.
Trump's tariffs could harm U.S. and China economies
Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has proposed 100% tariffs on countries that abandon the U.S. dollar, aiming to maintain its status as the world's reserve currency. Economist Hao Hong warns this could harm both the U.S. and China, potentially increasing U.S. inflation and impacting China's already struggling export sector. The U.S. dollar's share in global reserves has declined from over 70% in 1999, according to IMF data.
CIO confident in U.S. economy, dismisses recession fears
Thanos Papasavvas, founder and Chief Investment Officer of ABP Invest, expressed confidence in the U.S. economy's resilience, dismissing concerns about a potential recession. His comments come amid ongoing discussions about economic stability, inflation rates, and market performance, as analysts continue to monitor indicators that could signal shifts in the economic landscape.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/09/09/not-concerned-about-a-u-s-recession-cio-says.html
Tech sector weak despite Nvidia, Microsoft AI gains
Despite the surge in share prices for AI-focused companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, the broader technology sector remains weak, with many firms struggling since the 2022 recession. Analysts note a lack of activity outside AI, with traditional tech areas facing challenges from weak demand and overexpansion during the pandemic. Recent reports indicate slower growth for large tech firms and active shrinkage among smaller ones.
BNP Paribas: Yuan's worst likely over, but risks remain
BNP Paribas analyst Ju Wang stated that the Chinese yuan has likely passed its lowest point, but remains vulnerable to fluctuations. The currency's performance is significantly influenced by the upcoming U.S. Presidential election in November 2024, which could impact global economic conditions and investor sentiment.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/09/09/bnp-ju-wang-rmb-yuan.html
China faces deflation threat, August inflation data concerning
China's inflation data for August has raised concerns, with Zhaopeng Xing from ANZ Banking Group labeling it as "very bad." The country is facing a deflation threat, indicating a potential decline in consumer prices. This situation could impact economic growth and consumer spending, highlighting ongoing challenges within China's economy. Further details on specific inflation rates were not provided.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/09/09/chinas-august-inflation-data-is-very-bad-strategist-says.html
Goldman Sachs reports reduced spillover risk of EV batteries
Goldman Sachs reports a 50% decline in capital expenditure in the battery industry since its peak in Q4 2022, indicating a reduction in spillover risk of excess electric vehicle (EV) batteries from China. Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Asia-Pacific natural resources and clean energy research, highlights this trend as a significant shift in the market dynamics surrounding EV battery production.
Temporary budget bill would severely harm military operations
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that a six-month temporary budget bill would severely impact the Pentagon, cutting over $6 billion from the proposed 2025 budget. The continuing resolution would stall $4.3 billion in research projects and delay 135 military construction projects worth nearly $10 billion. It would also hinder troop training and readiness, affecting military operations amid global tensions. Congress must act by September 30 to prevent a government shutdown.
House GOP blames Biden for Afghanistan withdrawal chaos
House Republicans released a report blaming President Biden for the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which culminated on August 30, 2021. The report highlights failures in planning and decision-making, asserting that Biden ignored warnings as the Taliban rapidly seized control. The investigation, spanning over 18 months, involved testimonies from senior officials and reviewed more than 20,000 documents, concluding that both Biden and Trump share significant blame for the withdrawal's outcome.
Democrats emphasize "freedom" to regain House majority control
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is urging candidates to emphasize "freedom" in their messaging to regain House majority control ahead of the elections. The memo highlights issues like reproductive rights and economic freedom, framing Republicans as threats to these freedoms. Campaigns are focusing on various wedge issues, while Republicans counter that their platform addresses inflation and public safety concerns.
Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-congressional-campaign-committee-memo-2024-election/
VAT Group stock predicted to rise 35%-75% amid AI boom
Swiss company VAT Group is projected to benefit from the AI boom, with analysts from Vontobel and Jefferies predicting stock price increases of 35% and 75%, respectively. The global semiconductor market is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with AI-related semiconductors accounting for 30-40% by 2027. VAT specializes in vacuum valves for semiconductor production, crucial for ultra-clean environments.
Trump and Biden support a US sovereign wealth fund
The Biden administration is exploring a sovereign wealth fund, a concept recently proposed by Donald Trump. This fund could finance technology, energy, and supply chain initiatives, potentially easing national debt. Sovereign wealth funds, used by countries like Norway and Saudi Arabia, manage vast assets for investment returns. Details on funding and structure remain unclear, but bipartisan interest highlights a rare political consensus.
Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-and-biden-us-should-have-a-sovereign-wealth-fund-2024-9