⭐️ Tax cuts may enrich top ten Americans further – May 21, 2025

Few countries control critical mineral supply, China dominates

Author

Jack Roshi
May 21, 2025

Hi! It’s Jack and The Stock Insider team with the best, non-partisan daily newsletter related to politics, the US stock market, and business. 😇

The Podcast:

The Markets:

Fear & Greed Index: 69/100

🟢🟢🟢🟢🔴 The market is very greedy.

Market Indices

U.S. benchmarks drifted lower while Canada and Brazil eked out gains; volatility jumped and Europe finished broadly in the red.

  • 🔴 Dow Jones: 42,677.24 (-114.83 | -0.27%)

  • 🔴 S&P 500: 5,940.46 (-23.14 | -0.39%)

  • 🔴 Nasdaq: 19,142.71 (-72.75 | -0.38%)

  • ⚪ Small Cap 2000: 2,105.58 (+1.15 | +0.05%)

  • 🟢 S&P 500 VIX: 18.68 (+0.59 | +3.26%)

  • 🟢 S&P/TSX: 26,055.63 (+83.70 | +0.32%)

  • 🟢 Bovespa: 140,110 (+473 | +0.34%)

  • 🔴 S&P/BMV IPC: 58,311.15 (-182.24 | -0.31%)

  • ⚪ MSCI World: 3,873.55 (+3.52 | +0.09%)

  • 🔴 DAX: 23,984.75 (-32.55 | -0.14%)

  • ⚪ FTSE 100: 8,784.36 (+3.24 | +0.04%)

  • 🔴 CAC 40: 7,894.67 (-47.75 | -0.60%)

  • 🔴 Euro Stoxx 50: 5,434.65 (-20.00 | -0.37%)

Forex & Bonds

The dollar weakened against the euro and sterling, Treasury yields were mixed, and bitcoin edged lower.

  • 🟢 EUR/USD: 1.1327 (+0.0045 | +0.40%)

  • 🔴 USD/JPY: 143.65 (-0.85 | -0.59%)

  • 🟢 GBP/USD: 1.3419 (+0.0027 | +0.20%)

  • 🔴 BTC/USD: 106,721.90 (-114.20 | -0.11%)

  • 🔴 5-Year Treasury: 4.067 (-0.014 | -0.34%)

  • 🟢 10-Year Treasury: 4.481 (+0.006 | +0.13%)

  • 🟢 30-Year Treasury: 4.967 (+0.027 | +0.55%)

Stock Movers

Healthcare led as UnitedHealth surged, while Alphabet’s share classes dragged tech lower.

  • 🟢 UNH: +1.80%

  • 🟢 BILI: +0.89%

  • 🟢 WIX: +0.84%

  • 🟢 TSLA: +0.51%

  • 🟢 TGT: +0.13%

  • 🟢 PANW: +0.09%

  • 🔴 MSFT: -0.15%

  • 🔴 WMT: -0.33%

  • 🔴 HD: -0.61%

  • 🔴 BRK-B: -0.71%

  • 🔴 NVDA: -0.88%

  • 🔴 AAPL: -0.92%

  • 🔴 AMZN: -1.01%

  • 🔴 LOW: -1.36%

  • 🔴 GOOG: -1.52%

  • 🔴 GOOGL: -1.54%

Interesting Stocks to Look at:

Most Interesting Events Today:

May 21 2025 might generate several first-order and second-order market moves:

  • Macro/energy data: MBA mortgage-apps at 07:00 ET and the EIA weekly barrels report at 10:30 ET (full tables 13:00 ET).

  • Federal Reserve: 12:15-13:30 ET Fed Listens livestream with Governor Bowman and President Barkin. No minutes or Beige Book releases today.

  • Treasury supply: $60 bn 17-week bill at 11:30 ET and $16 bn 20-year bond reopening at 13:00 ET.

  • Earnings before the bell: Target, Lowe’s, TJX, Medtronic, Baidu, Progressive, VF Corp., Dycom, Wix, Full Truck Alliance, Weibo, iQIYI, Canada Goose.

  • Corporate event: Amazon virtual shareholder meeting at 12:00 ET.

  • Global backdrop: First working day of the Banff G-7 finance-minister meeting (20-22 May).

1. Macro and Federal-Reserve items

  • MBA Mortgage Applications – fresh read on housing credit and consumption sensitivity. A sharper drop than last week’s +1.1 % would underline demand softening.

  • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report – inventory swings feed directly into energy equities, breakevens, and hence equity duration trades.

  • Fed Listens (virtual) – unscripted Q&A with Barkin and Bowman can refine rate-path expectations; timing straddles the lunch hour and often moves front-end rates even without formal policy content.

2. Treasury funding operations

  • $60 bn 17-week bill at 11:30 ET: gauges near-term liquidity preference ahead of the Memorial-Day cash trough.

  • $16 bn 20-year bond reopening at 13:00 ET: the first long-duration sale since the U.S. lost its triple-A at Moody’s. A tail wider than 2 bp or a weak bid-to-cover would lift the term-premium embedded in equity discount rates.

3. Earnings before the open

  • Target (TGT) – traffic and discretionary spend under the 30 % China tariff regime.

  • Lowe’s (LOW) – home-improvement capex versus high mortgage rates.

  • TJX (TJX) – off-price resilience if real incomes compress.

  • Medtronic (MDT) – defensive margins in a wage-inflation setting.

  • Baidu (BIDU) – ADR sentiment amid cross-border audit rules.

  • Additional pre-market prints: Progressive, VF Corp., Dycom, Wix, Full Truck Alliance, Weibo, iQIYI, and Canada Goose; each carries factor-level volatility.

4. Corporate events

  • Amazon shareholder meeting – strategic commentary on AI governance, labor standards, and tariff-induced logistics costs could swing the whole mega-cap cohort.

5. International policy backdrop

  • G-7 finance-minister / central-bank-governor meeting, Banff – U.S. Treasury aims to harden enforcement of the oil-price cap and to build support for new “over-capacity tariffs” on China. Surprise communiqués can move late-day FX and Treasury futures.

6. Tape areas to monitor

  • Rates volatility between 13:00 ET (bond auction) and 13:30 ET (Fed Listens Q&A).

  • Retail/consumer-discretionary factor at 09:30 ET as Target and Lowe’s numbers hit the tape.

  • Energy-equity spread after the 10:30 ET EIA release.

  • Mega-cap rotation near 12:00 ET if Amazon guidance surfaces.

  • Dollar and front-end swaps in the Asian session on any G-7 tariff headlines.

Sources

Most Impactful News Summaries:

Tax cuts may enrich top ten Americans further

The ten wealthiest Americans saw their combined wealth increase by $365 billion in the past year, coinciding with a debate over tax cuts that could further benefit the rich. This represents a gain of approximately $1 billion per day for these individuals.

This massive wealth accumulation occurred while the average American worker earned just over $50,000 in 2023. The proposed tax cuts, championed by Republicans, are projected to disproportionately favor the top 10% of earners, potentially exacerbating existing wealth inequality.

The debate over the tax cuts comes amid concerns about the national debt and a recent credit rating downgrade. Critics argue the cuts will increase the deficit, while supporters claim they will boost economic output.

Few countries control critical mineral supply, China dominates

The global supply of critical minerals, essential for clean energy technologies, is increasingly concentrated in a few countries, primarily China, raising concerns about supply disruptions.

A new report released Wednesday by the International Energy Agency highlights that the top three producing countries control an average of 86% of the market for key minerals like lithium and cobalt. China dominates refining processes for most strategic minerals.

This concentration, coupled with rising export restrictions, threatens economic security and could lead to higher prices, echoing the impact of past supply shocks like the energy crisis in Europe and the chip shortage during the pandemic.

Chinese gas firms now balance global LNG markets

Chinese gas firms are becoming global swing suppliers, leveraging diverse supply sources and flexible power systems. They are now trading LNG to balance global markets.

PetroChina aims to increase its LNG portfolio by 75% by 2030, seeking upstream stakes and flexible purchase agreements. This shift allows China to redirect LNG to Europe when prices are higher, reducing domestic imports.

China's role reversal stems from its well-supplied market and increased clean energy generation, allowing for greater flexibility in gas power plant operations. This enables them to profit from reselling LNG at higher prices.

Attackers use valid credentials in many cyber intrusions

The IBM X-Force 2025 Threat Intelligence Index reveals a significant rise in identity-centric cyberattacks, with nearly one-third of intrusions in 2024 using valid credentials. This shift highlights a move away from traditional malware.

The report indicates that attackers are increasingly exploiting valid accounts, often through phishing and stolen credentials, to gain access. Public-facing application exploits were the most common initial attack vector, enabling attackers to blend into normal network traffic.

Phishing-delivered infostealers are also surging, quietly harvesting credentials. Outdated systems and slow patching continue to provide vulnerabilities, emphasizing the need for proactive security measures and employee training.

Protest reveals Walmart's AI plans via Microsoft leak

Microsoft's AI security chief inadvertently exposed Walmart's confidential AI plans during a Build session after a protest disrupted the presentation. This accidental disclosure revealed Walmart's intentions to utilize Microsoft's AI tools.

The incident occurred when Neta Haiby, head of AI security, accidentally shared internal Microsoft Teams messages while the session was briefly paused due to protesters. The messages detailed Walmart's enthusiasm for Microsoft's Entra and AI gateway services.

The protest, led by former Microsoft employees, was against the company's cloud contracts with the Israeli government. This marks the third disruption at Microsoft Build by protesters in recent weeks.

Solar generation will exceed nuclear globally this summer

Solar power generation is projected to surpass nuclear power globally this summer, a first for the industry, signaling solar's continued growth in the energy sector.

This milestone is due to increased solar capacity and peak production during daylight hours. Solar output has already surpassed wind during the northern hemisphere's summer, and is expected to exceed nuclear's output during the same period.

Over the past decade, solar capacity has grown significantly, driven by lower costs and faster connection times. This expansion presents both opportunities and challenges for utilities in grid management and balancing power sources.

Gopinath urges US to curb its fiscal deficit

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath urged the U.S. to reduce its fiscal deficit due to its "ever-increasing" debt burden, as reported by the Financial Times.

Gopinath stated the U.S. faces "very elevated" trade policy uncertainty despite some positive developments, such as tariff rollbacks. The IMF previously lowered its U.S. growth forecast, citing the impact of tariffs and warning of further slowdowns.

These comments follow President Trump's proposal to extend tax cuts and Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, both linked to concerns about the growing national debt.

Crystals make ultra-thin solar panels 1,000x more efficient

Ultra-thin solar panels, utilizing a novel crystal design, have achieved a 1,000-fold increase in efficiency compared to standard solar panels. This breakthrough promises a significant advancement in solar energy technology.

German scientists created these panels using a layered crystal structure, a "crystal sandwich," that directly converts light into electricity. This new design is simpler to manufacture and more durable than traditional silicon-based panels.

The development could revolutionize solar energy applications, enabling smaller, more powerful panels for various devices and potentially reducing costs and waste. The research was published in Science Advances.

US importers seek tariff-free warehouses for Chinese goods

Importers are rapidly converting US warehouses into tariff-free zones to avoid immediate payment of President Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods. This allows businesses to manage cash flow amid volatile trade policies.

Companies are seeking bonded warehouse status, where goods can be stored without immediate tariffs, due to the current 30% tariffs on Chinese imports. Demand has surged, causing prices for bonded warehouse space to increase significantly.

The rush reflects uncertainty about the duration of tariffs. While some companies are expanding bonded space, others are hesitant due to the costs and potential for tariff changes when the 90-day reprieve ends.

House Republicans investigate Harvard's ties to China

House Republicans have launched an investigation into Harvard University, alleging potential ties to the Chinese Communist Party and risks to U.S. national security.

The investigation, led by the House Select Committee on China, focuses on Harvard's collaborations with Chinese academics and potential involvement with a paramilitary organization. Lawmakers are demanding documents and testimony, citing concerns about research funded by the Department of Defense and collaborations with China-based researchers.

The probe follows ongoing tensions between Harvard and the Trump administration, which has withheld federal funding and pressured the university on various issues. Harvard has stated it will respond to the investigation.

Sinopec projects China's gas demand peaks 2035-2040

China's natural gas demand is projected to reach its peak between 2035 and 2040, hitting approximately 620 billion cubic meters, according to Sinopec.

Sinopec's chairman, Ma Yongsheng, stated that Asia-Pacific is the primary driver of global gas demand growth, with LNG trade expected to reach 440 million tons in 2025, and Asia accounting for 60% of imports.

Ma also noted potential market instability, citing supply chain disruptions, infrastructure disparities, and competition from renewable energy as challenges for the LNG market.

U.S. electricity demand will surge by 2050

A new report forecasts a significant surge in U.S. electricity demand, potentially increasing by up to 78% by 2050, posing challenges to grid reliability and affordability.

The ICF report highlights that demand could rise by at least 25% in the next five years, driven by factors like rising temperatures, emerging technologies, and increased use of electric vehicles. Retail electricity costs are also projected to double by 2050.

Grid operators are already warning of potential strain, with rising summer temperatures and increased demand from sources like data centers and cryptocurrency mining. Experts predict a 6% increase in electricity costs for 2025.

Musk plans many self-driving Teslas on US roads

Elon Musk announced plans to deploy hundreds of thousands of fully self-driving Teslas on US roads by the end of 2026, requiring no human intervention.

Musk, also committed to remaining Tesla's CEO for at least five more years, made the announcement in interviews on Tuesday. He also downplayed concerns about the impact of his past role in the Trump administration on Tesla's brand.

Tesla's stock rose nearly 1% on Tuesday. Musk's comments come as Tesla prepares to launch a self-driving taxi service in Austin, Texas, and faces scrutiny from federal regulators.