Jack’s note:
Later today please read my weekly report on The Stock Insider with major accouncements.
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The Markets:
📉 Fear & Greed Index: 37/100
🟢🟢🔴🔴🔴 — Fear based on VIX (the moods are lifting)
(It’s best to trade when the index is neutral—right in the middle.)
The calculation is based on VIX:
σ² = (2 / T) * Σ[ΔK * (K^(-2)) * e^(RT) * Q(K)] - (1 / T) * [(F / K0) - 1]²
Where:
- T is the time to expiration in years.
- ΔK is the interval between strike prices.
- K is the strike price of the option.
- R is the risk-free interest rate.
- Q(K) is the midpoint of the bid-ask spread for each option with strike K.
- F is the forward index level derived from index option prices.
- K0 is the first strike below the forward index level F.📈 Market Indices
Global equities saw a modest rally led by U.S. benchmarks, while volatility eased sharply. Tech-heavy markets outperformed, and the VIX dipped over 6%.
🟢 Nasdaq: 17,382.94 (+216.90 | +1.26%)
🟢 DAX: 22,242.45 (+177.94 | +0.81%)
🟢 Euro Stoxx 50: 5,154.12 (+39.14 | +0.77%)
🟢 S&P 500: 5,525.21 (+40.44 | +0.74%)
🟢 MSCI World: 3,618.48 (+22.32 | +0.62%)
🟢 S&P/BMV IPC: 56,720.12 (+338.12 | +0.60%)
🟢 CAC 40: 7,536.26 (+33.48 | +0.45%)
🟢 Bovespa: 134,739 (+159 | +0.12%)
🟢 FTSE 100: 8,415.25 (+7.81 | +0.09%)
🟢 Dow Jones: 40,113.50 (+20.10 | +0.05%)
⚪ Russell 2000: 1,957.62 (+0.03 | +0.00%)
🔴 S&P 500 VIX: 24.84 (−1.63 | −6.16%)
🔴 S&P/TSX: 24,710.51 (−17.02 | −0.07%)
💱 Forex & Bonds
The dollar climbed against major peers as U.S. Treasury yields pulled back, with shorter-dated notes leading the decline. Crypto was flat amid muted volatility.
🟢 USD/JPY: 143.64 (+1.07 | +0.75%)
🔴 BTC/USD: 94,044.10 (−116.20 | −0.12%)
🔴 EUR/USD: 1.1362 (−0.0026 | −0.23%)
🔴 GBP/USD: 1.3304 (−0.0035 | −0.26%)
🔴 30-Year Treasury: 4.738% (−0.027 | −0.57%)
🔴 10-Year Treasury: 4.266% (−0.039 | −0.91%)
🔴 5-Year Treasury: 3.884% (−0.043 | −1.09%)
🚀 Major Movers
Tech giants led the charge, with Tesla exploding nearly 10% on renewed bullishness, while legacy chipmaker Intel lagged badly.
🟢 TSLA: +9.80%
🟢 RDDT: +5.21%
🟢 PLTR: +4.64%
🟢 NVDA: +4.30%
🟢 ABBV: +3.15%
🟢 META: +2.65%
🟢 GOOGL: +1.68%
🟢 GOOG: +1.47%
🟢 AMZN: +1.31%
🟢 MSFT: +1.17%
🟢 QQQ: +1.11%
🟢 PG: +0.93%
🟢 AAPL: +0.44%
🟢 NFLX: +0.42%
🔴 JPM: −0.45%
🔴 INTC: −6.70%
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Most Interesting Events:
Quick view (Sunday | 27 Apr 2025)
Cash equities are shut, but the wiring for Monday’s open is being laid right now. A fresh Fed communications blackout, the IMF meetings hang-over, an Iranian port explosion, and another round of Monday-morning Treasury supply all might steer tonight’s 18:00 ET futures open. ([PDF] FOMC Blackout Period Calendar - Federal Reserve Board, IMF-World Bank meetings end with little tariff clarity, but economic foreboding)
1. Monetary & policy calendar
Fed blackout begins today
The rulebook prohibits any FOMC member from public comment from 00:00 ET today until 23:59 ET on 8 May. Expect zero official hand-holding while traders chew on data. ([PDF] FOMC Blackout Period Calendar - Federal Reserve Board)
IMF/World Bank spring meetings – nothing resolved
The meetings wrapped last night with no clarity on tariff policy. Any stray press scrum today might leak headlines that colour risk sentiment into the Asia open. (IMF-World Bank meetings end with little tariff clarity, but economic foreboding)
2. Treasury supply & rates (all times Monday, ET)
11:30 – 13-week & 26-week bill auctions.
13:00 – $69 bn 2-year note reopening.
A soft bid-to-cover could restart curve-steepening bets; a hot bid could reinforce the “front-end hoarding” trade. ([PDF] Tentative Auction Schedule (PDF) - U.S. Department of the Treasury)
3. Economic data
10:30 Monday – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr). Consensus sits at –15. A beat might calm recession chatter; a miss could amplify it. (Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey - Dallasfed.org)
No scheduled U.S. releases today (Sunday). Durable-goods data from Friday remains the most recent hard read. ([PDF] monthly advance report on durable goods manufacturers' shipments ...)
4. Corporate earnings & events (pre-market Monday)
Roper Technologies (ROP) – industrial-software bellwether; bookings guide might test the “cap-ex slump” story. (Roper Technologies schedules first quarter 2025 financial results ...)
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) – delivery volumes offer a fast read on discretionary consumption and gig-economy demand. (Domino's Pizza® to Transfer Stock Exchange Listing to Nasdaq)
Smaller names on deck: Revvity, BankUnited, Opera, InMode, among others.
5. Energy & geopolitics
Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port blast (Strait of Hormuz) – 28 dead, >700 injured. Any hint of sabotage or supply disruption might lift Brent when crude opens. (Death toll from blast at Iran's Bandar Abbas port rises to 28 | Reuters)
OPEC+ leak-watch – delegates tell Reuters some members will push today to accelerate the June output hike; a headline drop could swing energy futures. (Exclusive: OPEC+ to consider another accelerated oil output increase for June | Reuters)
6. Market mechanics
Globex equity-index futures reopen 18:00 ET (17:00 CT). That’s the first liquid venue for all of the above to reprice. (CME Group Holiday and Trading Hours - CME Group)
Month-end minus three: systematic equity and bond rebalancers might start shifting tonight.
No U.S. market holiday; regular cash session resumes Monday.
Beyond the Paywall:
Most Promising Stocks of The Day (from my new revolutionary Stock Arbitrage Scanner, to be public soon)
Most Impactful News Summaries (with sources)
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