Jack’s note:
Later today please read my weekly report on The Stock Insider with major accouncements.
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The Markets:
📉 Fear & Greed Index: 38/100
🟢🟢🔴🔴🔴 — Fear based on VIX (the moods are lifting)
(It’s best to trade when the index is neutral—right in the middle.)
The calculation is based on VIX:
σ² = (2 / T) * Σ[ΔK * (K^(-2)) * e^(RT) * Q(K)] - (1 / T) * [(F / K0) - 1]²
Where:
- T is the time to expiration in years.
- ΔK is the interval between strike prices.
- K is the strike price of the option.
- R is the risk-free interest rate.
- Q(K) is the midpoint of the bid-ask spread for each option with strike K.
- F is the forward index level derived from index option prices.
- K0 is the first strike below the forward index level F.Major Global Indices
Global equities closed higher across most regions, led by a strong rebound in European markets, while U.S. large-caps saw modest gains and tech stocks lagged. Volatility ticked up slightly on the VIX.
🟢 DAX: 22,437.97 (+181.18 | +0.81%)
🟢 S&P/BMV IPC: 56,980.13 (+260.01 | +0.46%)
🟢 Small Cap 2000: 1,965.55 (+7.93 | +0.41%)
🟢 S&P/TSX: 24,798.59 (+88.08 | +0.36%)
🟢 FTSE 100: 8,444.64 (+27.30 | +0.32%)
🟢 Dow Jones: 40,227.59 (+114.09 | +0.28%)
🟢 Bovespa: 135,016 (+277 | +0.21%)
🟢 S&P 500 VIX: 25.29 (+0.14 | +0.56%)
🟢 S&P 500: 5,528.75 (+3.54 | +0.06%)
🟢 MSCI World: 3,630.72 (+2.24 | +0.06%)
🔴 Nasdaq: 17,366.13 (–16.81 | –0.10%)
🔴 Euro Stoxx 50: 5,163.95 (–6.54 | –0.13%)
🔴 CAC 40: 7,560.52 (–13.24 | –0.17%)
Currencies & Crypto
The U.S. dollar held firm against major peers, with the yen outperforming after recent BOJ signals, while Bitcoin extended its rally above $95k.
🟢 USD/JPY: 142.74 (+0.78 | +0.55%)
🟢 BTC/USD: 95,094.70 (+474.70 | +0.50%)
🔴 GBP/USD: 1.3386 (–0.0046 | –0.35%)
🔴 EUR/USD: 1.1374 (–0.0044 | –0.38%)
U.S. Treasuries
Yields fell sharply across the curve as bond markets digested tame inflation data and Fed-watchers dialed back hawkish rate-cut expectations.
🟢 5-Year Treasury: 3.816% (–0.068 | –1.75%)
🟢 10-Year Treasury: 4.216% (–0.050 | –1.17%)
🟢 30-Year Treasury: 4.694% (–0.044 | –0.93%)
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Most Interesting Events:
Quick read (TL;DR)
Tuesday April 29 2025 will be busy: fresh numbers on wholesale inventories, home-price momentum, and consumer confidence drop before noon; the Treasury sells 4-, 8- and 17-week bills midday; and a cluster of large-cap corporates (GM, Honeywell, American Tower, PayPal pre-market; Booking Holdings after-hours) might move the tape. No Fed or SEC events are scheduled, but the day’s data and auctions can still sway rates, the dollar, and equity positioning.
Macro data releases
8:30 a.m. ET – Advance Wholesale Inventories (Mar.)
Inventories feed straight into GDP revisions; a surprise build hints at weaker final demand.
9:00 a.m. ET – S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home-Price Index (Feb.)
Home-builder, appliance, and regional-bank stocks key off the 20-city YoY pace and Sun-Belt vs. coastal spread.
10:00 a.m. ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
Watch the headline index, the “jobs plentiful vs. hard-to-get” gap, and one-year inflation expectations; all three influence discretionary names and rate-cut odds.
Treasury market events
11:30 a.m. ET – 4-week bills (~$60 bn)
11:30 a.m. ET – 8-week bills (~$55 bn)
1:00 p.m. ET – 17-week bills (~$35 bn)
Soft demand or wider tails might shake up front-end yields and spill into equity valuations, especially growth names that trade off discounted cash-flows.
Corporate earnings highlights
Before the bell
General Motors (GM) – EV profitability, China margins, labour-cost commentary.
Honeywell (HON) – Aerospace orders, debt-spin tax dynamics.
American Tower (AMT) – Small-cell rollout, India tenancy churn.
PayPal (PYPL) – Branded-checkout growth, AI cost-cuts.
After the close
Booking Holdings (BKNG) – Summer demand outlook, generative-AI pricing tools.
A raft of mid-caps (Arch Capital, First Solar, Caesars, Shift4, UPS, NOV, Cushman & Wakefield, PJT Partners, etc.) also release results; options liquidity is thin, so price gaps can be outsized.
Energy-market side note
The API private crude-inventory estimate is due this evening. If leaks surface during cash-equity hours, energy shares and breakevens could shift ahead of Wednesday’s official EIA report.
Central-bank and policy backdrop
Federal Reserve: No speeches, minutes, or meetings today; the next scheduled appearance is Vice-Chair Barr’s Q&A tomorrow.
SEC: No open meetings or rule deadlines; regulatory headline risk is minimal.
How the session might unfold
8:30-10:00 a.m. ET: A hot Case-Shiller print plus weak confidence could produce a curve bull-steepener and pressure home-builders.
Post-earnings tape: Beats from GM/HON could lift the Dow even if macro data disappoints.
Midday bill sales: Poor demand might push short rates higher and weigh on tech multiples.
Last hour: Desk positioning ahead of Booking’s results plus chatter on API crude numbers could swing both travel and energy pockets.
Expect volatility clusters rather than a one-way trend—manage risk accordingly.
Sources
Beyond the Paywall:
Most Promising Stocks of The Day (from my new revolutionary Stock Arbitrage Scanner, to be public soon)
Most Impactful News Summaries (with sources)
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