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The Markets:
📉 Fear & Greed Index: 34/100
🟢🟢🔴🔴🔴 — Fear based on VIX
(It’s best to trade when the index is neutral—right in the middle.)
The calculation is based on VIX:
σ² = (2 / T) * Σ[ΔK * (K^(-2)) * e^(RT) * Q(K)] - (1 / T) * [(F / K0) - 1]²
Where:
- T is the time to expiration in years.
- ΔK is the interval between strike prices.
- K is the strike price of the option.
- R is the risk-free interest rate.
- Q(K) is the midpoint of the bid-ask spread for each option with strike K.
- F is the forward index level derived from index option prices.
- K0 is the first strike below the forward index level F.Market Indices
Global benchmarks closed mixed, with U.S. large-caps eking out modest gains while small-caps and select emerging markets underperformed. European markets also edged higher, led by France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX.
🟢 Dow Jones: 40,669.36 (H 40,777.16 | L 39,745.63) +141.74 | +0.35%
🟢 S&P 500: 5,569.06 (H 5,581.84 | L 5,433.24) +8.23 | +0.15%
🔴 Nasdaq: 17,446.34 (H 17,483.82 | L 16,959.53) –14.98 | –0.09%
🔴 Russell 2000: 1,964.12 (H 1,969.40 | L 1,925.35) –12.40 | –0.63%
🔴 S&P 500 VIX: 23.71 (H 24.13 | L 23.67) –0.99 | –4.01%
🔴 S&P/TSX: 24,841.68 (H 24,843.56 | L 24,503.55) –32.80 | –0.13%
🔴 Bovespa: 135,067 (H 135,171 | L 133,955) –26 | –0.02%
🟢 S&P/BMV IPC: 56,259.28 (H 56,336.46 | L 55,241.51) +645.85 | +1.16%
🔴 MSCI World: 3,652.08 (H 3,654.28 | L 3,649.69) –3.44 | –0.09%
🟢 DAX: 22,496.98 (H 22,607.32 | L 22,235.74) +71.15 | +0.32%
🔴 FTSE 100: 8,492.94 (H 8,518.80 | L 8,459.80) –1.91 | –0.02%
🟢 CAC 40: 7,593.87 (H 7,609.32 | L 7,512.23) +38.00 | +0.50%
🔴 Euro Stoxx 50: 5,157.05 (H 5,185.75 | L 5,105.75) –4.85 | –0.09%
Forex & Bonds
The U.S. dollar showed pockets of strength—particularly against the yen—while Treasuries saw modest yield shifts amid a calmer risk tone. Bitcoin outperformed traditional FX, rallying over 1.5%.
🔴 EUR/USD: 1.1324 –0.0004 | –0.04%
🟢 USD/JPY: 144.35 +1.30 | +0.91%
🟢 GBP/USD: 1.3328 +0.0002 | +0.02%
🟢 BTC/USD: 96,208.50 +1,486.10 | +1.57%
🔴 5-Year UST Yield: 3.752% –0.023 | –0.61%
🟢 10-Year UST Yield: 4.177% +0.004 | +0.10%
🟢 30-Year UST Yield: 4.681% +0.033 | +0.71%
Major Movers
Tech names were split, but wide disparities emerged: Western Digital soared nearly 8%, while e-commerce giants and auto makers lagged. Overall, winners outnumbered losers by a narrow margin.
🟢 WDC: +7.98%
🟢 QCOM: +1.08%
🟢 BA: +0.68%
🟢 AAPL: +0.61%
🟢 MSFT: +0.31%
🟢 SPY: +0.04%
🔴 QQQ: –0.01%
🔴 NVDA: –0.09%
🔴 UAL: –0.16%
🔴 HOOD: –0.53%
🔴 META: –0.98%
🔴 F: –1.38%
🔴 AMZN: –1.58%
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Most Interesting Events:
TL;DR
On Thursday, May 1 2025, here’s what might move U.S. stocks beyond mere price swings:
Early macro prints on jobless claims, S&P Global/ISM manufacturing PMIs and EIA gas-storage
Treasury auction news and a Fed governor speech, plus end-of-day Fed data releases
A wave of earnings from mega-caps like Apple and Amazon, plus ~80 others
Corporate action quirks (Parks! America split, chatter around an O’Reilly split)
Thinner liquidity as Europe and Asia observe May Day
Below, deep dives on each, followed by linked sources at the bottom.
1. Macro Data Releases
8:30 ET – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
The Labor Department’s weekly report still might shift Fed-cut odds. A print north of 250 K would lift recession concerns; see also continuing claims for stickiness.9:45 ET – S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI (Apr.)
S&P’s April final is a last check on factory health; sub-50 shows contraction and might revive recession fears.10:00 ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr.)
The gold standard on U.S. factories. Watch the new-orders and prices-paid sub-indices for margin and inflation signals.10:30 ET – EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage
A build over 100 Bcf in shoulder season might push gas prices lower and weigh on utilities and pipelines.
2. Treasury & Fed Flow
≈ 11:30 ET – 26-Week T-Bill Auction Announcement
Surprises in auction size or stop-out rates might tweak term-premium models.14:30 ET – Speech by Fed Gov. Lisa Cook (Pittsburgh)
Any dovish tone after Q1 GDP softness might buoy growth and tech stocks.16:15 ET – Fed H.15 “Selected Interest Rates”
Daily SOFR and UST closes feed discount curves for overnight funding.16:30 ET – Fed H.4.1 “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances”
QT runoff path and RRP usage remain wildcards for liquidity models.
3. Earnings On-Deck
After the Close
Apple (AAPL): iPhone 17 pre-orders, services margin trends
Amazon (AMZN): AWS growth versus retail margin squeeze
Roku (ROKU): Streaming ad-spend trends as a consumer-spend canary
Pre-Market / Morning Calls
Eli Lilly (LLY): Obesity-drug capacity constraints
Mastercard (MA): Cross-border volumes, tariff impacts
McDonald’s (MCD): Traffic and mix in a slowing consumer
CVS, ICE, SO, TRI, APD, BDX: Full pre-market roster
DTE Energy (DTE) (9:00 ET): Regulated-rate pass-through dynamics
4. Corporate Actions & Oddities
Parks! America (PRKA)
Trading on a 1-for-500 reverse split followed by a 5-for-1 forward split could spark liquidity vacuums.O’Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY)
Retail chatter around a potential 15-for-1 forward split keeps flow dynamics active.
5. Global Context: Thin Liquidity
With Europe and most of Asia closed for May Day, U.S. venues will bear the full brunt of any surprise, might leading to exaggerated moves on weak depth.
Sources
Beyond the Paywall:
Most Promising Stocks of The Day (from my new revolutionary Stock Arbitrage Scanner, to be public soon)
Most Impactful News Summaries (with sources)
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