⭐️ U.S. will negotiate trade with Switzerland, 14 other countries — April 25, 2025

Jack’s note:

I published my first book today in a series of many.

You can download it if you get a subscription to The Stock Insider.

The new Stock Scanner will be online this weekend, God willing.

The Book Post Link

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Hi!

It’s Jack and the The Stock Insider team with the best non-partisan daily newsletter related to politics, the US stock market, and business. 😇

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The Markets:

📉 Fear & Greed Index: 34/100

🟢🔴🔴🔴🔴 — Fear based on VIX (the moods are lifting)

(It’s best to trade when the index is neutral—right in the middle.)

The calculation is based on VIX:
σ² = (2 / T) * Σ[ΔK * (K^(-2)) * e^(RT) * Q(K)] - (1 / T) * [(F / K0) - 1]²

Where:
- T is the time to expiration in years.​
- ΔK is the interval between strike prices.​
- K is the strike price of the option.​
- R is the risk-free interest rate.​
- Q(K) is the midpoint of the bid-ask spread for each option with strike K.​
- F is the forward index level derived from index option prices.​
- K0 is the first strike below the forward index level F.

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Market Indices

On April 24, markets shrugged off recent jitters and sprinted into the green, led by hefty gains across U.S. benchmarks.

• 🟢 Dow Jones: 40,093.40 (+486.83 | +1.23%)

• 🟢 S&P 500: 5,484.77 (+108.91 | +2.03%)

• 🟢 Nasdaq: 17,166.04 (+457.99 | +2.74%)

• 🟢 Small Cap 2000: 1,957.59 (+38.45 | +2.00%)

• 🟢 S&P 500 VIX: 26.70 (+0.23 | +0.87%)

• 🟢 S&P/TSX: 24,727.53 (+254.85 | +1.04%)

• 🟢 Bovespa: 134,580 (+2,364 | +1.79%)

• 🟢 S&P/BMV IPC: 56,382.00 (+615.42 | +1.10%)

• 🟢 MSCI World: 3,599.50 (+3.34 | +0.09%)

• 🟢 DAX: 22,232.36 (+162.99 | +0.74%)

• 🟢 FTSE 100: 8,425.62 (+18.18 | +0.22%)

• 🟢 CAC 40: 7,543.84 (+41.06 | +0.55%)

• 🟢 Euro Stoxx 50: 5,150.75 (+35.77 | +0.70%)

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Forex & Bonds

The dollar flexed against major currencies, bitcoin popped, and Treasuries took a breather—yields slid roughly 1–2% across the curve.

• 🔴 EUR/USD: 1.1353 (–0.0035 | –0.31%)

• 🟢 USD/JPY: 143.41 (+0.84 | +0.59%)

• 🔴 GBP/USD: 1.3320 (–0.0019 | –0.14%)

• 🟢 BTC/USD: 94,522.70 (+1,249.00 | +1.34%)

• 🔴 5-Year Treasury: 3.927 (–0.087 | –2.17%)

• 🔴 10-Year Treasury: 4.305 (–0.082 | –1.87%)

• 🔴 30-Year Treasury: 4.765 (–0.068 | –1.41%)

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Top Movers

Tech and data plays dominated today’s leaderboard—Palantir’s nearly 7% jump stole the show, while PepsiCo’s drop was the lone buzzkill.

• 🟢 PLTR: +6.90%

• 🟢 INTC: +4.37%

• 🟢 TSM: +4.04%

• 🟢 NVDA: +3.62%

• 🟢 TSLA: +3.50%

• 🟢 AMZN: +3.29%

• 🟢 TM: +2.86%

• 🟢 GOOGL: +2.53%

• 🟢 GOOG: +2.38%

• 🟢 SPY: +2.10%

• 🟢 IWM: +2.00%

• 🟢 AAPL: +1.84%

• 🟢 HCA: +1.62%

• 🟢 T: +1.25%

• 🟢 VZ: +0.26%

• 🔴 PEP: –4.89%

Below, you can subscribe to my most significant newsletter (almost HALF A MILLION active retail traders). I publish A TON of free articles there.

Most Interesting Events:

In a sentence: It’s a deceptively busy Friday—weak Michigan sentiment might spook consumers, a softer rig count might flag shale retrenchment, defensive-heavy earnings might miss, and late-day Fed & CFTC PDFs might give the quant desks fresh ammo.

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1 | Earnings that might shape the tape

• AbbVie (ABBV) – Humira-erosion guidance will ripple across big-cap pharma.

• HCA Healthcare (HCA) – Bed-count trends give a real-time read on discretionary care demand.

• Aon (AON) – Re-insurance pricing power is an early signal on catastrophe-premium inflation.

• Colgate-Palmolive (CL) – If a toothpaste titan can’t pass on tariff costs, margin compression is real.

• Charter Communications (CHTR) – Rural-build cash burn tells us whether cap-ex is finally cracking.

• Schlumberger (SLB) & Phillips 66 (PSX) – Services vs. downstream margins = paired check on energy cap-ex and crack spreads.

• The “breadth” crew – CNC, LYB, AVTR, SAIA, AN – Medicaid, chemicals, lab gear, trucking, autos; collectively a soft-landing litmus test.

Why it might matter: It’s a defensive/late-cycle slate; a group miss would confirm tariff-driven cost pressure and feed a rotation into ultra-defensives.

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2 | Macro releases

• 10 a.m. ET – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final April)

  • Flash was 50.8 (post-’08 low). A lower final print accelerates the shift into staples/bonds; a rebound squeezes retail shorts.

• 1 p.m. ET – Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

  • Two straight weekly drops already; a third would shout “cap-ex pullback”, bearish OFS, bullish tight-supply plays.

• 3:30 p.m. ET – CFTC Commitments of Traders

  • If CTA net-longs in equities stay near YTD lows, Monday gap-risk is real.

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3 | Central-bank & liquidity watch

• 4:15 p.m. ET – Fed H.8 (weekly bank balance-sheet)

  • Renewed deposit outflows = bank-stress trades get new oxygen.

• Scattered Fed-speak (Harker at 9:30 a.m., Barkin at 2:30 p.m., Kugler after hours).

  • Any hint of a tariff-driven policy pivot yanks the front end of the curve.

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4 | Market micro-structure & policy odds-and-ends

• Cboe EDGX options engine tweak effective today – Only one IOC quote per update; could make the opening bandwidth “stickier” in high-freq names.

• IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings – Day 5 (runs through Saturday) – Expect tariff blow-back chatter; weekend communiqué can move FX on Sunday.

• Phoenix Asia Holdings (PHOE) IPO prices today – First sizeable Asia-linked listing post-tariff wave; demand is a barometer for U.S.–China détente hopes.

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5 | Weekend risk

• After-bell drops – H.8 PDF, COT tables, and any White-House trade tweets could jolt Sunday globex.

• IMF meetings wrap Saturday – Communiqué language may set Monday’s risk tone.

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Bottom line

No single knockout print—today is about whether a stack of “might”-sized negatives piles high enough to flip quant models from buy-the-dip to de-risk.

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Sources

• Nasdaq — Pre-Market Earnings Report (April 25 2025)

• Investing.com — Michigan Sentiment & Rig Count Data Due Friday

• Investing.com — U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Calendar

• Investing.com — U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

• Federal Reserve — H.8 Assets & Liabilities Release

• CFTC — Commitments of Traders Reports

• Cboe — Notice: Limiting IOC Quotes per Update (Effective Apr 25 2025)

• IMF — 2025 Spring Meetings Schedule

• Nasdaq — IPO Calendar (Phoenix Asia Holdings)

Beyond the Paywall:

• Most Promising Stocks of The Day (from my new revolutionary Quantum Stock Scanner, to be public soon)

• Most Impactful News Summaries (with sources)