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The Markets:
📉 Fear & Greed Index: 59/100
🟢🟢🟢🔴🔴 — Market is greedy
(It’s best to trade when the index is neutral—right in the middle.)
The calculation is based on VIX:
σ² = (2 / T) * Σ[ΔK * (K^(-2)) * e^(RT) * Q(K)] - (1 / T) * [(F / K0) - 1]²
Where:
- T is the time to expiration in years.
- ΔK is the interval between strike prices.
- K is the strike price of the option.
- R is the risk-free interest rate.
- Q(K) is the midpoint of the bid-ask spread for each option with strike K.
- F is the forward index level derived from index option prices.
- K0 is the first strike below the forward index level F.📈 Market Index Recap
Broad-based equity pullback across U.S. and Europe. Small caps led declines. Mexico’s IPC surged on strength in domestic flows.
🔴 Dow Jones: 40,829.00 (-389.83 | -0.95%)
🔴 S&P 500: 5,606.91 (-43.47 | -0.77%)
🔴 Nasdaq: 17,689.66 (-154.58 | -0.87%)
🔴 Small Cap 2000: 1,983.19 (-21.07 | -1.05%)
⚪ S&P 500 VIX: 24.65 (-0.11 | -0.44%)
🟢 S&P/TSX (Canada): 24,974.72 (+21.20 | +0.08%)
🟢 Bovespa (Brazil): 133,516 (+25 | +0.02%)
🟢 S&P/BMV IPC (Mexico): 57,349.83 (+1,513.84 | +2.71%)
🔴 DAX (Germany): 23,220.75 (-17.56 | -0.08%)
🔴 FTSE 100 (UK): 8,556.91 (-40.51 | -0.47%)
🔴 CAC 40 (France): 7,650.94 (-45.98 | -0.60%)
🔴 Euro Stoxx 50: 5,245.75 (-17.63 | -0.33%)
⚪ MSCI World: 3,685.91 (-1.25 | -0.03%)
💱 Forex & Bond Snapshot
Mixed forex movement. Treasuries drifted higher across the curve, led by the 5-year.
🔴 EUR/USD: 1.1363 (-0.0004 | -0.03%)
🟢 USD/JPY: 143.40 (+0.98 | +0.69%)
🔴 GBP/USD: 1.3351 (-0.0011 | -0.09%)
🟢 BTC/USD: 97,004.10 (+542.70 | +0.56%)
🟢 5-Year Treasury: 3.918% (+0.02 | +0.51%)
🟢 10-Year Treasury: 4.324% (+0.016 | +0.37%)
🔴 30-Year Treasury: 4.801% (-0.012 | -0.25%)
📊 Major Stock Movers
Tech underperformed. Defensive names were mixed. PLTR collapsed after earnings. SMCI defied the tide.
🟢 SMCI: +2.39%
🟢 UBER: +0.47%
🟢 DIS: +0.07%
🔴 PLTR: -12.05%
🔴 NVO: -4.09%
🔴 META: -2.00%
🔴 AMD: -1.96%
🔴 TSLA: -1.75%
🔴 AMZN: -0.72%
🔴 MSFT: -0.66%
🔴 GOOGL: -0.60%
🔴 GOOG: -0.51%
🔴 SPY: -0.84%
🔴 BA: -0.27%
🔴 AAPL: -0.19%
🔴 NVDA: -0.25%
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Most Interesting Events:
Federal Reserve
FOMC statement 14:00 ET; Chair Powell press conference 14:30 ET. Market focus: whether the Committee holds the 4.25 – 4.50 % target range, revises growth language, or hints at tariff-induced inflation pass-through. A hawkish tone risks curve steepening; any mention of trade-driven downside risks supports duration.
Macroeconomic data
MBA Mortgage-Applications 07:00 ET. Consensus looks for a rebound after last week’s –4.2 %. A double-digit gain would soften recession probabilities for regional-bank loan books.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status 10:30 ET. Watch gasoline and distillate draws ahead of driving season; a surprise crude build caps energy-beta equities and eases break-even inflation.
Consumer Credit G.19 15:00 ET. Next-release cadence resumes; a sharp rise in revolving credit would flag household stress just as rate-cut odds fade, spilling into retail and card-issuer multiples.
Corporate earnings
Before open
Disney Q2 FY25. Attention on ESPN direct-to-consumer losses, parks margins, and FY EPS guide.
Uber Q1 25. U.S. ride-hail take-rate versus emerging regulatory costs drives print.
Emerson Electric, Johnson Controls, Barrick Gold, Verisk, Vistra add industrial and resource read-throughs.
After close
Fortinet Q1 25. Security capex guide sets sector sentiment.
Paycom, DoorDash, Skyworks, Corteva, Rockwell and other mid-caps round out the slate.
Policy / geopolitics
Washington confirms U.S.–China tariff talks to open in Geneva Saturday; announcement hits tape today. A cooperative tone narrows risk premia across cyclicals.
Beijing injects liquidity and trims policy rates overnight, reinforcing global disinflation currents likely referenced in Fed remarks.
Rates & supply
No Treasury coupons auctioned today; dealers digest last week’s refunding-size increase ahead of tomorrow’s 30-year bond sale. Supply relief keeps term premium contained intraday.
Energy
OPEC+ speculation on output increases collides with the 10:30 ET EIA print; inventory surprise sets direction for oil-linked equities and high-yield energy spreads.
Other scheduled items
Fed speaker blackout continues; headline risk limited to trade and tariff developments.
Sources
Beyond the Paywall:
Most Promising Stocks of The Day (from my new revolutionary Stock Arbitrage Scanner, to be public soon)
Most Impactful News Summaries (with sources)
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