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The Markets:
📉 Fear & Greed Index: 57/100
🟢🟢🟢🔴🔴 — Market is getting greedy
(It’s best to trade when the index is neutral—right in the middle.)
The calculation is based on VIX:
σ² = (2 / T) * Σ[ΔK * (K^(-2)) * e^(RT) * Q(K)] - (1 / T) * [(F / K0) - 1]²
Where:
- T is the time to expiration in years.
- ΔK is the interval between strike prices.
- K is the strike price of the option.
- R is the risk-free interest rate.
- Q(K) is the midpoint of the bid-ask spread for each option with strike K.
- F is the forward index level derived from index option prices.
- K0 is the first strike below the forward index level F.Global Indexes
Global equities fell across most regions; volatility spiked sharply. Bovespa and Small Cap 2000 posted the steepest declines.
🟢 S&P 500 VIX: 24.81 (+1.17 | +4.95%) at 08:27:31
⚪ S&P/BMV IPC: 55,835.99 (+24.00 | +0.04%) at 05/05
⚪ MSCI World: 3,706.81 (–0.57 | –0.02%) at 08:28:15
⚪ FTSE 100: 8,589.80 (–6.55 | –0.08%) at 08:27:52
🔴 Dow Jones: 41,218.83 (–98.60 | –0.24%) at 05/05
🔴 S&P 500: 5,650.38 (–36.29 | –0.64%) at 05/05
🔴 DAX: 23,176.37 (–159.05 | –0.68%) at 08:29:56
🔴 Nasdaq: 17,844.24 (–133.49 | –0.74%) at 05/05
🔴 Small Cap 2000: 2,004.26 (–16.48 | –0.82%) at 05/05
🔴 S&P/TSX: 24,953.52 (–77.99 | –0.31%) at 05/05
🔴 CAC 40: 7,699.88 (–28.05 | –0.36%) at 08:27:45
🔴 Euro Stoxx 50: 5,252.85 (–30.20 | –0.57%) at 08:28:05
🔴 Bovespa: 133,491 (–1,643 | –1.22%) at 05/05
Forex & Bonds
Dollar weakened vs. major peers; Treasury yields edged lower except the 30-year. Yen underperformed.
🟢 GBP/USD: 1.3376 (+0.0085 | +0.64%)
🟢 EUR/USD: 1.1332 (+0.0018 | +0.16%)
⚪ 30-Year Treasury: 4.84 (+0.01 | +0.21%)
⚪ 10-Year Treasury: 4.339 (–0.004 | –0.09%)
🔴 5-Year Treasury: 3.924 (–0.019 | –0.48%)
🔴 USD/JPY: 142.80 (–0.88 | –0.61%)
🔴 BTC/USD: 93,757.30 (–642.70 | –0.68%)
Major News
Tech sector mixed; Apple led declines, IBM topped gains. Meta, Microsoft modestly higher.
🟢 IBM: +1.48%
🟢 DDOG: +0.67%
🟢 META: +0.38%
🟢 MSFT: +0.20%
🟢 DASH: +0.15%
🟢 GOOG: +0.14%
🟢 GOOGL: +0.11%
⚪ NVO: –0.16%
🔴 PLTR: –0.41%
🔴 NVDA: –0.59%
🔴 MAR: –0.88%
🔴 F: –1.07%
🔴 MAT: –1.10%
🔴 TSLA: –2.42%
🔴 AMZN: –1.91%
🔴 AAPL: –3.15%
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Most Interesting Events:
Monetary policy
FOMC two-day meeting starts; decision tomorrow. Target range expected to stay 4.25 %–4.50 %. Focus on tariff-linked inflation language.
Fed Board closed meeting 08:30 ET; agenda typically discount-rate and supervisory matters.
Economic data
08:30 ET — International Trade in Goods & Services (March). Consensus deficit ≈ $137 bn; could trim 0.3–0.4 pp from Q2 GDP now-casts.
Treasury issuance
11:00 ET — Announcement for tomorrow’s 17-week bill.
11:30 ET — Auction $70 bn six-week bills.
13:00 ET — Auction $42 bn 10-year notes, reopening Feb-2035 issue.
Corporate earnings
Pre-market — Palantir, Ford, Constellation Energy, American Electric Power, Leidos. Watch Ford’s $1.5 bn tariff hit.
After close — AMD, Arista Networks, Vertex Pharma, Ball Corp, Lucid Group, Super Micro Computer, Rivian. Options imply ±6 % one-day moves.
Regulatory events
10:00–13:00 ET — SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee debates raising Regulation A limits; outcome could ease disclosure burdens for mid-caps.
Geopolitics & trade
President Trump meets Canadian PM Mark Carney in the White House; markets eye retaliation to U.S. auto tariffs and hints of proposed pharmaceutical duties.
Market sentiment
Long-bond yields at two-week highs ahead of the 10-year auction.
S&P 500 futures softer overnight as earnings downgrades and trade headlines counter yesterday’s rebound.
Sources
Beyond the Paywall:
Most Promising Stocks of The Day (from my new revolutionary Stock Arbitrage Scanner, to be public soon)
Most Impactful News Summaries (with sources)
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