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The Markets:
📉 Fear & Greed Index: 58/100
🟢🟢🟢🔴🔴 — Market is greedy
(It’s best to trade when the index is neutral—right in the middle.)
The calculation is based on VIX:
σ² = (2 / T) * Σ[ΔK * (K^(-2)) * e^(RT) * Q(K)] - (1 / T) * [(F / K0) - 1]²
Where:
- T is the time to expiration in years.
- ΔK is the interval between strike prices.
- K is the strike price of the option.
- R is the risk-free interest rate.
- Q(K) is the midpoint of the bid-ask spread for each option with strike K.
- F is the forward index level derived from index option prices.
- K0 is the first strike below the forward index level F.📈 Market Indexes
U.S. and global equity markets showed broad strength, with the Dow leading major U.S. indexes. European indexes outperformed, while the VIX fell, signaling risk-on sentiment.
🟢 Dow Jones: 41,113.97 (+284.97 | +0.70%)
🟢 S&P 500: 5,631.28 (+24.37 | +0.43%)
🟢 Nasdaq: 17,738.16 (+48.50 | +0.27%)
🟢 Small Cap 2000: 1,989.66 (+6.47 | +0.33%)
🔴 S&P 500 VIX: 22.68 (-0.87 | -3.69%)
🟢 S&P/TSX (Canada): 25,161.18 (+186.46 | +0.75%)
🔴 Bovespa (Brazil): 133,398 (-118 | -0.09%)
🟢 S&P/BMV IPC (Mexico): 57,954.39 (+604.56 | +1.05%)
⚪ MSCI World: 3,695.64 (-1.90 | -0.05%)
🟢 DAX (Germany): 23,353.00 (+235.36 | +1.02%)
🟢 FTSE 100 (UK): 8,584.33 (+25.00 | +0.29%)
🟢 CAC 40 (France): 7,715.32 (+88.48 | +1.16%)
🟢 Euro Stoxx 50: 5,296.05 (+65.86 | +1.26%)
💱 Forex & Bonds
The dollar gained against the yen and pound, while Treasury yields rose across the curve—led by the 5-year—indicating persistent inflation pressure or rate hike expectations.
⚪ EUR/USD: 1.1300 (+0.0001 | +0.00%)
🟢 USD/JPY: 144.69 (+0.87 | +0.61%)
🟢 GBP/USD: 1.3335 (+0.0046 | +0.34%)
🟢 BTC/USD: 99,437.20 (+334.30 | +0.34%)
🟢 5-Year Treasury: 3.904% (+0.031 | +0.80%)
🟢 10-Year Treasury: 4.296% (+0.021 | +0.49%)
🟢 30-Year Treasury: 4.786% (+0.013 | +0.27%)
📊 Major Movers
Big tech was mixed: Nvidia surged while Alphabet crashed post-earnings. Disney spiked double digits, leading the day. Fortinet and Toyota slipped.
🟢 DIS: +10.76%
🟢 NVDA: +3.10%
🟢 AMZN: +2.00%
🟢 AMD: +1.76%
🟢 META: +1.62%
🟢 FBCV: +0.81%
🟢 FIDU: +0.43%
🟢 FBND: +0.20%
⚪ MSFT: +0.01%
🟢 TSLA: +0.32%
🔴 FTNT: -0.39%
🔴 TM: -1.83%
🔴 AAPL: -1.14%
🔴 GOOG: -7.51%
🔴 GOOGL: -7.26%
⚪ SPY: +0.42%
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Most Interesting Events:
U.S. macro releases
08:30 ET – Initial jobless claims (week ending 3 May). Might shift front-end Treasury yields and equity factor leadership if the print deviates from consensus.
08:30 ET – Preliminary Q1 non-farm productivity and unit-labor costs. A productivity miss or labor-cost spike might revive margin-compression concerns for high-multiple growth stocks.
10:00 ET – March wholesale inventories (advance). A draw would feed Q2 GDP-tracker upgrades and favor cyclicals; a build would have the opposite effect.
10:30 ET – Weekly EIA natural-gas storage. Surprises influence energy equities and inflation-break-even pricing.
Policy and central-bank actions
Federal Reserve: Implementation note keeps the interest rate on reserve balances at 4.40 % effective today; no FOMC speakers scheduled.
12:30 ET – SEC closed meeting (Sunshine Act). Undisclosed agenda could generate single-name volatility in affected sectors.
13:00 ET – $25 bn 30-year Treasury bond reopening auction. Market gauges demand for long duration ahead of settlement on 15 May.
Corporate earnings
Before open: Shopify, ConocoPhillips, Brookfield, Canadian Natural, Cheniere, Sempra, Kenvue, argenx, Restaurant Brands, Cenovus, Warner Bros Discovery, BCE.
After close: Coinbase, Monster Beverage. Coinbase’s results tie to crypto-volatility; Monster’s input-cost commentary affects staples sentiment.
International spill-overs
12:00 BST – Bank of England cuts Bank Rate 25 bp to 4.25 %. Vote split and Monetary Policy Report shape global-rates positioning and USD-cross flows.
Washington trade headline: White House expected to unveil a limited U.S.–UK tariff-reduction pact later this morning, with potential sector rotation in autos, steel, and tech hardware.
Energy and commodities
No OPEC+ meeting today; DOE crude balances published yesterday.
Event-risk matrix
Two tier-one U.S. data points at the open, SEC closed session midday, long-bond supply in early afternoon, major cross-sector earnings bookending the session, external rate cut and trade headline risk from London and Washington.
Sources
Beyond the Paywall:
Most Promising Stocks of The Day (from my new revolutionary Stock Arbitrage Scanner, to be public soon)
Most Impactful News Summaries (with sources)
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